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ECB Pricing Little Changed To A Touch Softer, Wider Market Swings More Impactful Than Rhetoric

STIR

The previously covered swings in wider core global FI markets leave ECB-dated OIS little changed to 3bp softer on the day, with regional data releases and familiar ECB speak having no tangible net impact.

  • President Lagarde once again pointed to a “sufficiently restrictive” rate stance.
  • ECB Vice President de Guindos generally stuck with the central line provided by the Bank, while the usually dovish Centeno underscored his preference for no further rate hikes in the current cycle.
  • Elsewhere, Governing Council member Herodotou noted that inflation data points to effective ECB policy that is having an impact.
  • Regional data releases did little for the space.
  • Terminal policy rate pricing is 4bp above prevailing levels, while a full 25bp cut is priced come July ’24.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Oct-233.916+1.6
Dec-233.940+4.0
Jan-243.933+3.3
Mar-243.890-1.0
Apr-243.823-7.7
Jun-243.738-16.2
Jul-243.644-25.6
Sep-243.535-36.5
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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