ECB Pricing Little Changed To Start, Eurozone CPI Eyed

Little net movement in the liquid area of the ECB-dated OIS strip early today, outside of a tick lower in Mar ’24 meeting pricing. That leaves pricing a touch shy of yesterday’s hawkish extremes, although feedthrough from the hawkish movements in the FOMC equivalent in the wake of yesterday’s U.S. data underpinned pricing after the pullback.

• That leaves ~23bp of tightening priced for next month’s gathering, a cumulative ~40bp priced through the key September meeting and a terminal deposit rate of just over 4.00%.
• Markets haven’t paid much attention to the latest FT sources piece which noted that “the UK’s stubbornly high inflation has convinced senior policymakers at the European Central Bank to maintain their aggressive stance on raising interest rates to avoid being accused of failing to contain price pressures.”
• Eurozone CPI data headlines the regional docket today, with a notable downside surprise delivered in the Dutch CPI print, while the French equivalent was in line to a touch softer vs, market expectations (yesterday’s German data biased expectations for the Eurozone reading a touch higher).