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ECB Pricing Sits In Familiar Territory As Quiet Period Begins

STIR

ECB pricing sits in familiar territory as the pre-monetary policy meeting quiet period gets underway.

  • Levels are little changed on the day despite the swings in wider core global fixed income markets, with the Bank’s views re: monetary policy settings generally understood owing to heavy discussion in the time since the previous meeting.
  • That leaves ~3.5bp of further tightening priced in through the back end of ’23, with the markets essentially viewing the hiking cycle as finished.
  • Further out, a full 25bp rate cut from prevailing levels is more than fully priced come the end of the Bank’s July ’24 meeting.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Oct-233.906+0.3
Dec-233.939+3.6
Jan-243.937+3.4
Mar-243.892-1.1
Apr-243.826-7.7
Jun-243.735-16.8
Jul-243.643-26.0
Sep-243.544-35.9
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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