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ECB Pricing Unfazed By Lagarde/Schnabel Comments

STIR

Nothing in the way of substantive, market-moving comments from ECB President Lagarde and Executive Board member Schnabel:

  • Lagarde points to further progress on inflation, a resilient labour market, still-strong domestic price pressures and determination to return inflation to target in a timely manner. Lagarde went on to reiterate the Bank’s policy stance, alongside pointing to a need for tighter fiscal policy and the Bank’s aim to finish its framework review by Spring ’24.
  • Schnabel pointed to a clear moderation in Eurozone economic activity, while noting that shrinking money supply doesn’t signal a deep recession, while warning that there isn’t an all-clear re: the inflation situation.
  • Little movement in ECB-dated OIS vs. levels flagged earlier, with 2bp of tightening showing for October, terminal policy rate pricing 5-6bp above prevailing levels (come December), before a little over 40bp of cuts is seen through September.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Oct-233.925+2.0
Dec-233.962+5.7
Jan-243.951+4.6
Mar-243.912+0.7
Apr-243.853-5.2
Jun-243.765-14.1
Jul-243.664-24.1
Sep-243.547-35.8
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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