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ECB VP Puts EUR/USD North of 1.09

FOREX
  • The single currency is outperforming ahead of Thursday's US hours, with ECB Vice President de Guindos this morning outlining his view that QE will conclude in July, at which point a rate hike is possible - data depending. The resultant jostling of rates markets puts implied rates above 0% by year-end, helping boost EUR/USD back above the 1.09 handle.
  • Price action has traded through resistance at 1.0904, the 20-day EMA. This is a positive short-term development and suggests potential for an extension higher near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1026. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and the 50-day EMA represents the next key resistance point.
  • Yesterday's corrective JPY rally has faded into Thursday NY hours, with the Japanese currency the weakest performer so far. Nonetheless, USD/JPY remains well below the cycle high printed Wednesday at Y129.40.
  • Antipodean currencies are moderately softer as markets take profits on Wednesday's China-inspired gains. AUD and NZD sit just above JPY in the G10 table.
  • Weekly jobless claims data and the April Philly Fed release are the highlights due Thursday as well as an appearance from Fed's Powell, who joins an IMF panel with ECB's Lagarde. BoE's Mann and Bailey are also due to speak.
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