ECB-watcher Frederik Ducrozet at Pictet.........>

ECB: ECB-watcher Frederik Ducrozet at Pictet Wealth Management has just issued

his ECB preview. 

- Pictet sees GDP growth being revised higher for the fifth consecutive quarter

to around 2.1% in 2018 (up from 1.8%) and 1.8% in 2019 (up from 1.7%).

- Based upon FX and oil price assumptions Pictet also see higher headline CPI

forecasts; "HICP inflation higher by about 20bp in 2018 (from 1.2% to 1.4%), and

by 10bp in 2019 (from 1.5% to 1.6%)." However, core inflation has disappointed

and so starts from a lower point leading to downward revisions and end at 2019

being unrevised at 1.5%Y/Y.

- For 2020, Ducrozet expects "headline inflation to show further convergence

toward the ECB's target to close to 1.8%."

- Importantly, he describes the 2020 Staff Projections as being consistent with

the ECB's mandate.