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ECB Watchers Conference Highlights Regional Calendar

STIR

Euribor futures are flat to +1.5 ticks through the blues.

  • Softer-than-expected German PPI data will have provided some modest support, while the UK CPI data has added a little more BoE rate cut premium into GBP STIRs.
  • Main regional focus today will be on the ECB watchers conference in Frankfurt, where panellists include the ECB's Lagarde, Lane, de Cos and Schnabel.
  • The full schedule for the event is here.
  • ECB's Nagel and Villeroy also appear separately at 1630GMT/1730CET, speaking on a panel r.e. "the future of European finance".
  • There hasn't been much narrative-changing data released since the March ECB meeting, so we expect speakers to continue to point towards June re: the start of rate cuts.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 88bps of rate cuts through the remainder of '24, with 20bps priced through the June meeting.
  • Yesterday afternoon, Governing Council member Kazaks noted he was "comfortable" with current market pricing.
  • The regional data calendar includes flash March consumer confidence, while the FOMC decision provides the major macro risk event.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.901-0.7
Jun-243.705-20.3
Jul-243.556-35.2
Sep-243.350-55.8
Oct-243.197-71.1
Dec-243.029-87.9
Jan-252.902-100.6
Mar-252.759-114.9
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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