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ECB week

BUNDS

Bund trades fairly subdued since the cash open, with investors eyeing the ECB this week.

  • The contract is just off the lows on small short cover, with risk slightly better offered on the margin, although Estoxx still trade in the green on the EU Govie open.
  • Medium, long term outlook remains unchanged, with steepeners still favoured.
  • Short term outlook is squarely on US/Russia, and US/China geopolitical tensions.
  • New record global Covid spikes, and vaccination pace is also at the forefront.
  • With the long end future better bid, 5/30s trades flatter, but within the tight April range (86.443-90.684)
  • Upside target here, is still eyed at 92.955 (2021 high and steepest since July 2019)
  • No tier 1 data to start the week, and little in terms of speakers with ECB and now Fed on blackouts.
  • Instead, some small attention on the other side of the pond, with US President Joe Biden meeting lawmakers to discuss his jobs plan.
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