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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have seen a reasonable push higher today, at least for meetings beyond tomorrow’s decision, with terminal lifting 1bp and then both the Jun’24 and Dec’24 +4bps.
- The move has been driven by the Q3 ECI showing less moderation than the Fed would like, with additional support at the margin from stronger than expected house price growth and a smaller than expected decline in consumer confidence.
- The moves leave implied rates out to mid-2024 having reversed the decline seen after US GDP and particularly a stronger than expected increase in continuing jobless claims on Thursday, whilst 2H24 rates remain a little lower – see table.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: 0bp for tomorrow (unch), +6.5bp for Dec (+1bp), +9.5bp for Jan (+1bp) for a terminal 5.43%.
- Cuts from terminal: 23bp to Jun’24 (lowest since Oct 18) and 77bp to Dec’24 (lowest since Oct 25).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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