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Economic Activity Rose 5.3% Y/y In April, May Unemployment Data Due Today

PERU
  • Data released over the weekend revealed that the economy grew by a larger than expected 5.3% y/y in April, up from -0.3% previously and well above the 2.2% Bloomberg consensus. Prior to the release on Friday, the finance ministry had posted on X that it expected GDP growth to be about 4% in both April and May. The breakdown showed that manufacturing activity rebounded by 11.4% y/y, while construction (+7% y/y) and retail (+3.1%) activity also picked up, offsetting a 4.3% y/y fall in mining activity.
  • The data follow the surprise BCRP decision to pause its easing cycle last week, which analysts note has helped to keep USDPEN in a relatively tight range, aided by the usual intervention by the central bank. BBVA note that the range for USDPEN has moved mildly but steadily higher, with support rising from 3.68 to 3.73 and the resistance at 3.80 within reach.
  • On the data front today, Lima unemployment figures for May will be published at 1600BST / 1100ET, with analysts expecting the unemployment rate to decline by 30bp to 7.4%.

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