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Economic Sentiment at Late 2020 Lows

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

EUROZONE SEP ECONOMIC SENTIMENT 93.7; AUG 97.3r

EUROZONE SEP CONSUMER SENTIMENT -28.8; AUG -25.0

EUROZONE EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS 106.7; AUG 107.9

  • Economic confidence recorded another sharp decline in September, extending the seven-month slide which began at the onset of the Ukraine war. Germany led the decline, followed by substantial falls in the Netherlands, Italy and France.
  • Selling and consumer price expectations rose again in September, after seeing relief in Summer, in line with the anticipated uptick in September CPI to +9.7% y/y due tomorrow. This will confirm the need for the ECB to keep on its tightening course at the October meeting, with another 75bp hike firmly on the table.
  • Consumer confidence was confirmed at -28.8, a fresh low for the bloc as high inflation continues to weaken purchasing power and economic outlooks remain pessimistic.
  • Employment expectations edged downwards, however, remained relatively robust due to widespread labour market tightness. Industry and construction employment expectations were the downwards drivers, exposing the effect of waning demand on employment plans.

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