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Economy Continued To Slow At End Of 2023

AUSTRALIA DATA

The December NAB business survey was mixed with confidence rising 7 points to -1 from -8, driven by retailers, but conditions declining 2 points to +7, still higher than 2019 but only just above the series average. Confidence is below the historical average despite the December improvement, as the business outlook is clouded by still above-target inflation and geopolitical and policy developments. NAB notes that the deterioration in business conditions likely resulted in the easing in price pressures.

  • Conditions eased over 2023 starting at 22 in January and finishing at 7 after the RBA brought rates to 4.35% and cost-of-living pressures continued to be an issue for the entire year. Confidence was volatile in 2023 but finished the year around the annual average.
  • Business conditions were weighed down by the trading environment (-3 points) and employment (-2 points) while profitability was unchanged. The deterioration was driven by manufacturing and construction but services were still robust. Capacity pressures eased with the utilisation rate down to 82.7%, remaining above average.
  • Forward orders improved 1 point to -3, which is still below average.
  • Export sentiment deteriorated with exports down 1 point and sales down 5 points.
  • See NAB report here.
Australia NAB business conditions vs forward orders

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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