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Economy Ministry Presents Baseline Scenario of Economic Forecasts

RUSSIA
  • The economy ministry on Tuesday presented the baseline scenario of its economic forecast to 2027, which will be the basis for the next three-year budget, Kommersant report. It projects that GDP growth will slow to 2.8% in 2024 from 3.6% in 2023 and then hold at 2.3-2.4% in the subsequent two years. Russians' real disposable incomes are expected to grow by 5.2% in 2024 with inflation slowing to 5.1%.
  • Russian exports to European countries plunged by half to $9bn in the first two months of 2024 from $18.3bn in the same period last year, customs data showed as cited by Vedomosti. The drop was not just due to sanctions but was also caused by lower prices for pipeline gas. Russia's overall exports in January-February fell by $5.4bn, but Central Bank data showed they began to recover in March.
  • The Federal Statistics Service will report March industrial production data and weekly inflation this afternoon (17:00BST/19:00 local time).
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