Ecuador Election Update

Ecuador's presidential election will go to a second round in April after none of the 16 candidates won enough votes to be declared the winner in the first attempt on Sunday.

• Left-wing economist Andrés Arauz has won the first round of Ecuador's presidential election with about 32% of the vote – however this was not enough for an outright victory.
• He is now set to dispute the second round with Yaku Perez, an indigenous environmentalist from the Pachakutik party. The run-off is scheduled for 11 April.
• Banker Guillermo Lasso, the most pro-market option, was set to be left out of the runoff, which has caused Ecuador's dollar bonds due 2030 to fall by the most since they were restructured in August.

Finance Minister Pozo said the Government will keep policy continuity after the vote. He added:

• Ecuador aims to tap DFC $3.5b credit line before runoff
• Ecuador may submit central bank reform to congress today

• Stakes for Ecuador higher than in Argentina due to lack of "deficit monetization and minimal domestic issuance capacity for saturated and shallow local markets"
• "Weak dollarization and budget stress creates policy challenges for even the most orthodox management with ideological constraints further complicating creditor relations"