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Edenred (NR, A-) 8Y FV

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

exp. €500m 8Y IPT +145a vs. FV +105 (-40bps)

  • secondary +2-4 and captured below

We have no issue with the co; its fundamentals are strong. As we said above investors will likely need to bear regulation headlines often and the long-term impacts will remain uncertain. The flipside of that is more vol and better entry levels; 29s traded as wide as +87 on Italian regulation issues earlier this year; its -30bps in.


We see it safe to assume over long-run it may erode on Edenred (no. 1 in employee benefits/voucher services) growth and margins (on competition regulation lowering barriers to entry etc.) - to be clear potential erosion from the impressive high teens growth and 40-handle margin (on EBTIDA) it's running currently.


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