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EDP: EBITDA Missed But Net Debt Better, Little To Drive Upgrades Ahead Of Call

UTILITIES

EDP (EDP PL) reported after the close last night. EBITDA missed marginally but net debt was helped by a regulatory upgrade. EDP’s cash curve is tighter YTD but there’s not much here to drive incremental positives, we feel.


  • Key credit metrics: net debt is EUR15.3bn (from 16.9bn at Sep-23), the improvement driven by an uplift in regulatory working capital. Organic FCF in the final quarter was not out of line with the pattern of prior quarters but, at c.EUR1bn p.a., doesn’t offer much deleverage potential.
  • EBITDA missed consensus by 1.6% and was -12% vs. 3Q23 (lower energy prices) which, with an uptick in non-cash charges and net interest meant pre-tax missed by a large margin (EUR112m vs. 425 est.). The business was only breakeven at the net level (though mgmt point to a range of exceptionals) but it still paid a dividend.
  • Outlook: EDP has raised equity in the last year (EUR1bn in Mar-23), after which, the ratings agencies affirmed “stable” or upgraded (Moody’s in May-23) but there is very little in terms of forward guidance here. This will be a key point on the call.

Conf call is 1130 London time at: https://streamstudio.world-television.com/889-1181-38961/en

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