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EDZ2/EDZ3 Inversion Disappears

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds terminal rate expectations of 4.70% for May’23 FOMC sit within a wide range of 4.63-4.83% today, although latter overnight with US session highs of 4.77%.
  • However, with continued increased for the Dec’23 to 4.52%, cuts are further priced out and indeed separate EDZ2/EDZ3 inversion has now disappeared from 75bps of cuts two months ago.
  • Earlier Fed commentary didn’t rock the boat: new appearances from Collins and Logan had inflation as number one priority (Collins somewhat two-sided seeking ‘clear and compelling’ signs that inflation falling but also that quite likely inflation is near peaking or may have peaked) although Bostic noted increased uncertainty and global recession odds from UK tax cuts proposals. Mester still to come at 1600ET.

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