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EGB/Gilt: Core Curves Bull Flattening

BOND SUMMARY

Core European sovereign curves have bull flattened while the EGB periphery has sold off.

  • Gilts have rallied with cash yields 1-4bp lower with the 2s30s spread 3bp narrower.
  • Bunds have marginally outperformed on the day. The 30-year benchmark yield has traded down 5bp.
  • OATs have lagged the rally with yields up to 2bp lower.
  • BTPs have traded slightly weaker. Last yields: 2-year -0.3548%, 5-year 0.1177%, 10-year 0.7380%, 30-year 1.6038%.
  • Supply came from UK (Gilts, GBP2.5bn), Germany (Bund, EUR1.649bn), Italy (BOTs, EUR6.5bn).
  • This morning's data releases were second tier. Spanish retail sales for September printed broadly in line with survey (-3.3% Y/Y SA vs -3.4%).
  • Focus is on tomorrow's ECB meeting. Although the monetary policy stance is expected to remain unchanged, most see this as an opportunity for the ECB to signal further easing at the December meeting. MNI has published its ECB Preview online and by email.
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