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EGB/Gilt: Expectations Running High Ahead of BoE Meeting

BOND SUMMARY

EGBs have firmed and curves have bull steepened alongside gains for equities.

  • The focus today is on the BoE meeting. Given that policymakers, led by Andrew Bailey, have ramped up the hawkish rhetoric recently, expectations are running high for the meeting and the bar for disappointment is low. Tightening policy would confirm the hawkish shift, while standing pat and dialing back the rhetoric risks triggering a sharp correction.
  • Gilts have been bid this morning with cash yields 1-3bp lower.
  • Bunds have rallied and the curve has steepened with the 2s30s spread widening by 4bp.
  • OATs have slightly outperformed bunds at the short end where yields are down 4-5bp.
  • BTPs have broadly mirrored the move in core EGBs.
  • Supply this morning came from France (OATs/Green OAT, EUR9.493), Spain (Obli/OblieEi, EUR5.021bn). In addition, Italy bought back EUR4bn of BTPs/CCTeu.
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