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EGB/Gilt: Gilts Continue To Outperform

BOND SUMMARY

Core European government bonds have broadly traded firmer again today while equities and FX have been mixed.

  • The fluid situation with respect to the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues to be a key driver for markets. US President Joe Biden has warned that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the coming days is high.
  • Meanwhile, Russia has announced that it will start nuclear exercises to test ballistic missiles on Saturday.
  • UK retail sales increased faster than expected in January relative to December, while falling short of expectations in Y/Y terms (Ex Auto Fuel: 1.7% M/M vs 1.1% consensus, 7.2% vs 7.9%).
  • Gilt cash yields are 1-3bp lower on the day with the curve bull steepening
  • Bunds initially opened weaker but have firmed through the morning and now trade marginally above yesterday's close.
  • The OAT curve has twist steepened with the 2s30s spread 2bp wider.
  • BTPs have lacked clear direction and trade a touch weaker on the day.
  • Supply this morning came from the UK (UKTBs, GBP2bn).
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