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EGB/Gilt: Hawkish Central Bank Commentary Fuels Sell-Off

BOND SUMMARY

European government bonds have traded lower, while equities have started the week on the back foot.

  • Gilts have underperformed EGBs with cash yields 4-5bp higher across the curve. Hawkish commentary from BoE policymakers over the weekend (Governor Bailey indicated he was "concerned with inflation" and Michael Saunders argued that it was appropriate for the market to price in earlier rate hikes) have underpinned the sell-off.
  • Further fueling the debate around inflation, the ECB's Centeno has stressed that risks remain from supply bottlenecks, while Klass Knot has warned investors to take inflation risks seriously.
  • There is a strong slate of ECB speakers later today (Lane, Stournaras, de Cos, Holzmann, and Elderson)
  • Bunds have similarly traded lower with yields up 2-3bp from the Friday close.
  • OATs trade in line with bunds. The curve is 1bp steeper.
  • BTPs have marginally underperformed core EGBs with cash yields 1-3bp higher on the day.
  • Supply this morning came from Germany (Bubills, EUR3.371bn allotted). Later today France will offer EUR5.6-6.8bn of BTFs.
  • The European data calendar was light this morning with no significant Tier one releases.

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