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EGB/Gilt - Italian politics drive EGBs lower

BONDS
  • EGBs and Bund have been under pressure today, led by the BTP, following the political debacle for the country.
  • Draghi is now meeting with the President, and Mattarella could seek to encourage Draghi to remain in office for sake of political stability. However, cannot be guaranteed.
  • Unclear who a successor could be that would command support of the ideologically broad coalition that Draghi managed to unite for a period.
  • BTP/Bund has in turn widened by 17bps, to test 215bps, but the spread has pullback somewhat, as Futures bounce off their lows, now by 13bps.
  • Gilt trade in the red, but outperform Germany, putting the Gilt/Bund.

UK politics, second round results saw:

  • Rishi Sunak 101
  • Penny Mordaunt 83
  • Liz Truss 64
  • Kemi Badenoch 49
  • Tom Tugendhat 32
  • Suella Braverman 27 - Eliminated.

Mordaunt remains the betting market favourite to win the leadership. Internal polling of Conservative party members has her as the favourite, beating all other potential challengers.

  • Looking ahead, Fed’s Waller Discusses the Economic Outlook.
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