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EGB/Gilt: Trading Mixed Ahead of US CPI Report

BOND SUMMARY

European government bonds initially rallied through the morning following a weak start, but eventually started to give back some of the gains. Equities have inched higher while the dollar is again on the backfoot against G10 FX.

  • The gilt curve has sharply twist flattened, largely on the back of the short-end selling off. The 2s30s spread has narrowed 11bp.
  • The bund curve has similarly twist flattened with the 2s30s trading down 6bp.
  • Having rallied earlier in the morning, OATs subsequently sold off and now trade mixed on the day, albeit with the short end trading marginally below yesterday's close.
  • BTPs have traded lower with yields up to 4bp higher at the short end.
  • The final estimate of German CPI for July matched the initial reading (8.5% Y/Y)
  • Supply this morning came from Germany (Bund, EUR1.165bn allotted), Italy (BOTs, EUR7bn).
  • Focus today shifts to the US CPI data for July, with the Bloomberg consensus expecting a slight deceleration to 8.7% Y/Y from 9.1% in June.
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