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EGB/Gilt: UK Slides Into Recession

BOND SUMMARY

European government bonds have traded lower this morning alongside gains for equities and the dollar vs G10 FX.

  • Data published this morning confirmed that the UK economy slipped into recession during the second quarter with GDP contracting 0.1% Q/Q (a touch better than expected)) with monthly data showing a 0.6% M/M drop in June.
  • Gilts sold off earlier in to the session and despite reclaiming some ground, continue to trade below yesterday's close. Yields are up 2-4bp with the longer end of the curve underperforming.
  • Supply this morning came from the UK (UKTBs, GBP3.5bn).
  • The bund curve has marginally bear steepened with the 2s30s spread widening 2bp.
  • The OAT curve has similarly slightly steepened.
  • BTP yields are up 1-4bp.
  • US import/export prices for July and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence update for August will be published later today.
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