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EGB/Gilt: Unwinding Yesterday's Risk-Off Move

BOND SUMMARY

Following yesterday's risk-off move, European markets have reversed course with sovereign fixed income selling off and equities pushing higher. However, given the fluid state of play with the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the pressure facing tech stocks, sentiment is at risk of turning sour again in the near term.

  • Gilts have underperformed EGBs with cash yields 4-6bp higher on the day and the curve steepening 1-2bp.
  • The bund curve has bear steepened with the 2s30s spread widening 2bp.
  • The long end of the OAT curve has similarly underperformed with the 2s30s trading up 3bp.
  • The BTP curve has twist steepened by 1-2bp.
  • The German IFO survey for January was a touch better than expected. The current assessment printed in line with the consensus (96.1), while the expectation component surprised higher (95.2 vs 93.0).
  • Supply this morning came from the Netherlands (DSL, EUR1.985bn). France is also selling EUR3bn of a 30-year OATEi via syndication.
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