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Trend Needle Points South


Fed Terminal Up To 5.06% in June 2023


Heading North


Late Dec/Mar Tsy Roll Level Update

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A busier session for EGBs, all US treasuries led, where short covering was triggered in the US, as the 10yr (TY) trades through the June high and US 10yr yield fell bellow 1.40%, to test 1.3515%.

  • The move in the US saw further upside momentum post US PMI and ISM Services misses.
  • This provided a round of buying dragging BTP, OAT, and Gilts towards new session highs.
  • There was no clear trigger for the initial move, but US led Europe. Peripherals are generally tighter with Italy leading by 1.7bps, but Greece lags somewhat, sitting flat against the German 10yr.
  • Similar price action for Gilt with the contract spiking higher inline with EGBs.
  • UK/Bund spreads has tightened by 2.3bps so far today.
  • Looking ahead, we have nothing left of note, no data or speakers, so attention quickly turns to the US FOMC minutes tomorrow.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.75 today at 128.93 with 10y yields down -7.2bp at 0.641% and 2y yields down -1.1bp at 0.041%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.76 today at 173.46 with 10y Bund yields down -4.8bp at -0.260% and Schatz yields down -1.1bp at -0.677%.
  • BTP futures are up 0.73 today at 152.47 with 10y yields down -6.3bp at 0.741% and 2y yields down -1.1bp at -0.398%
  • OAT futures are up 0.72 today at 159.85 with 10y yields down -5.6bp at 0.064% and 2y yields down -0.6bp at -0.649%.

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