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EGB Spillover Continues In Holiday Thinned Trade

US
  • The sizeable rally in EGBs continues to spill over into Tsy futures, with TYM3 seeing an 11 tick intraday rally to 112-21 for +8 ticks on the day and clearly reversing any initial cheapening on the open in a cautious take on the debt deal still needing Congress approval. Volumes still unsurprisingly floundering with the US and UK on holiday, cumulative less than 70k vs recent av of 225k.
  • Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings are unchanged from earlier in the European session but have reversed increases for subsequent meetings for little changed from Friday’s close.
  • Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +15.5bp Jun (-0.5bp since Fri), +24bp Jul (-1bp), +18bp Sep (-1bp), +6bp Nov (unch), -9bp Dec (-0.5bp) and -24bp Jan (unch).
  • Goolsbee (’23 voter) yesterday echoed other Fed speakers that he doesn’t want to prejudge June’s rate move [notable releases between now and then include payrolls on Jun 2 and CPI on Jun 13]. He did however keep to dovish leaning remarks that Fed moves takes months, years to work through the economy.
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