EGB Supply (2/2)

• On Thursday, Italy will look to hold a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction including a new 5-year BTP as we expected. On offer will be E4.5-5.0bln of the new 5-year 4.10% Feb-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005566408), E2.5-3.0bln of the 10-year on-the-run 4.20% Mar-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005560948), E500-750mln of the 0.50% Apr-26 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005428617) and E500-750mln of the 0.75% Oct-30 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005491250).
• We also pencil in a Spain syndication this week – noting the short duration skew of the most recent auction. We also note that Spain held syndications in September in both 2021 and 2022 that Spain hasn’t held a syndication in the same week as an auction at any point since at least 2019. The two recent September syndications were for 20-year maturities (green in 2021 and conventional in 2022), but neither have yet exceeded E10bln in size so we are unsure of the likely maturity on offer. There could be arguments for both a new 30-year Obli at a current coupon rate or even potentially a 40-year Obli.

EZ230926.pdf