EGB Supply

Germany looks to return to the market while Portugal and Italy both also still look to hold auctions in the week ahead. The EU and the Netherlands both came to the market yesterday. We now expect a Greek syndication next week instead of this week. In general, the syndication schedule is slowing down a bit as we approach the ECB meeting. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E20.5bln, down notably from the E51.2bln seen last week – but there are substantially lower redemptions and coupon payments.

• Germany will return to the market this morning with a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1.5bln of the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E500mln of the 2.50% Aug-46 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102341).
• Also this morning, Portugal will look to sell a combined E1.5-1.75bln of 5/20-year OTs: the on-the-run 5-year 2.125% Oct-28 OT (ISIN: PTOTEVOE0018), the on-the-run 20-year 1.15% Apr-42 OT (ISIN: PTOTEPOE0032) and the off-the-run 20-year 4.10% Feb-45 OT (ISIN: PTOTEBOE0020).
• Tomorrow, Italy will come to the market for a BTP Short Term and 5/15-year BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the 3.60% Sep-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005557084), E0.5-1.0bln of the 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) and E0.75-1.50bln of the 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812).

EZ240124.pdf