EGB Supply

Italy is due to return to the market on Friday. In addition, Slovakia, the EU, Italy, Germany, Finland and Luxembourg have already held institutional issuance operations this week. Subscriptions for Belgium’s retail state bonds are due to begin on Thursday. We pencil in estimated gross issuance (ex-retail) for the week at E28.4bln, down from an estimated E37.8bln last week.

• On Friday, Italy will return to the market to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. As expected, we will see the launch of the new 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302). Alongside this E0.5-1.0bln of the 5-year 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) and E250-500mln of the 20-year 2.55% Sep-41 BTPei (ISIN: IT0004545890) will be on offer.
  • As we didn’t see the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994) reopened, we look for a new long 10-year BTPei to be launched via syndication, potentially as early as the first quarter of the year. There is also a chance that a new 10-year BTPei could potentially be launched via auction.
• Note that subscriptions for the next retail-only Belgium State Bonds (Bons d’Etat) will open on Thursday 22 February. Belgium plans to launch a new 1-year issue (ISIN: BE3871294240) and a new 3-year issue (ISIN: BE3871295254). The subscription window is planned to be open until Friday 1 March but there is a possibility of an early close. The BDA has announced that there will be a combined limit of E6.0bln across the two issues. For more on the State Bonds see the PDF.

EZ240222.pdf