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EGB Supply for W/C 28 June: Upcoming

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

We estimate this week will see a further E23bln sold in addition to the E18.8bln sold by Belgium and for the second NGEU syndication. This would sum to total nominal gross issuance of E41.8bln for the week, up from E23.8bln last week.

  • Italy will hold the last Q2 auction this morning, looking to sell 5/9/10-year BTPs. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the 0% Apr-26 BTP, E1.0-1.5bln of the 0.95% Aug-30 BTP and E1.0-1.5bln of the 0.90% Apr-31 BTP. Note that there will be no CCTeu on offer following the syndicated launch of the new long 7-year CCTeu last week.
  • Latvia has issued a mandate for a long 7-year Jan-29 LATVIA. We look for the transaction to take place today with a value of E1bln. We note that the Latvia Treasury's plans indicate syndicated issuance for 2021 as a whole at E2.25bln and E1.25bln was raised in March with the launch of the 0% Mar-31 LATVIA which saw books of E2.8bln.
  • Spain will be first to issue tomorrow with E4-5bln of nominal bonds (the 0% Jan-26 Bono, the 1.40% Apr-28 Obli, the 1.00% Oct-50 Obli) and E250-750mln of the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei on offer.
  • France will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday with E10-11bln of LT OATs on offer: the 0% Nov-30 OAT, the 0% Nov-31 OAT, the 1.25% May-36 OAT and the 0.50% May-40 OAT. We note that this will be the first time in 2021 a LT OAT auction has been held without a 30+ year OAT being auctioned and think this could mean that we see the new 30-year OAT (which is scheduled for H2) be issued via syndication on either 6/13 July. We assign a 70% probability to a syndication on one of these dates.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There are E13.3bln of redemptions due this week, of which E13.0bln are an Italian CTZ. Coupons sum to just E0.5bln. This would leave net nominal flows at E28.3bln for the week, up from E19.8bln last week. Although, as we noted above, this will largely depend on the size of the NGEU syndication.

For a full calendar of all scheduled supply operations see the MNI Eurozone/UK Bond Auction Calendar here.

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