EGB Supply for W/C 28 June: Upcoming

We estimate we will see a further E16bln will be sold by Spain and France in addition to the E25.3bln raised through auctions and syndications so far this week. This would sum to total nominal gross issuance of E41.3bln for the week, up from E23.8bln last week.

• Spain will be first to issue this morning with E4-5bln of nominal bonds (the 0% Jan-26 Bono, the 1.40% Apr-28 Obli, the 1.00% Oct-50 Obli) and E250-750mln of the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei on offer.
• France will conclude issuance for the week this morning with E10-11bln of LT OATs on offer: the 0% Nov-30 OAT, the 0% Nov-31 OAT, the 1.25% May-36 OAT and the 0.50% May-40 OAT. We note that this will be the first time in 2021 a LT OAT auction has been held without a 30+ year OAT being auctioned and think this could mean that we see the new 30-year OAT (which is scheduled for H2) be issued via syndication on either 6/13 July. We assign a 70% probability to a syndication on one of these dates.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There are E13.3bln of redemptions due this week, of which E13.0bln are an Italian CTZ. Coupons sum to just E0.5bln. This would leave net nominal flows at E27.8bln for the week, up from E19.8bln last week.

For a full calendar of all scheduled supply operations see the MNI Eurozone/UK Bond Auction Calendar here.