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EGB Supply for W/C Jan 18

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

France, Spain, Germany, Finland and Slovakia are all scheduled to hold auctions this week. We estimate supply of E21.5bln from these auctions. In addition, the EU has issued an RFP for its SURE bonds. There could be further syndications with Greece the most likely additional issuer to come to the market. Last week saw issuance of E42.8bln (with E21.0bln from syndications).

  • Issuance will kick off on Monday with Slovakia offering E0.53bln. E150mln of the 1.00% Jun-28 SlovGB, E150mln of the 1.00% Oct-30 SlovGB, E78.4mln of the 1.625% Jan-31 SlovGB and E150mln of the 1.00% May-32 SlovGB are available.
  • The EU will issue at least one SURE bond via syndication. Based on previous issuance, we would expect a dual tranche transaction of either 10/20-year maturities or 7/25-year. The transaction could take place on Monday but no date is confirmed.
  • On Tuesday, Finland will come to the market, offering E1bln of the 0% Sep-30 RFGB.
  • On Wednesday, Germany will look to sell E1.5bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund.
  • Spain will come to the market on Thursday, with amounts to be announced. On offer will be the 0% Jan-26 Bono, the 0.80% Jul-27 Obli 1.20%, the Oct-40 Obli and the 1.85% Jul-35 ObliEi.
  • France will then come to the market to sell E8.5-10.0bln of nominals and E1.5-2.5bln linkers. The new 0% Feb-24 OAT and 0.10% Jul-31 OATEi will both be launched, while the 0% Feb-26 OAT and the 0.75% Nov-28 OAT will be reopened.
CASH FLOWS: With issuance of E21.5bln (ex syndications), redemptions of E7.5bln (E5bln EFSF, E1.5bln Slovenia, E1bln Latvia) and coupons of E0.4bln, net flows for the week are estimated at E13.6bln, substantially down from

last week's E38.7bln.

For more see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.

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