EGB Supply for W/C Jan 4th, 2021

Italy, Ireland, Germany and Slovenia have already issued bonds this week with Germany, Spain and France set to hold further auctions this week. We estimate E44.2bln of supply this week. We would not rule out more countries announcing syndications in the coming days (such as Portugal).

• ISSUANCE: On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market with the new 10-year Bund maturing Feb-31 set be launched with E5bln on offer. Spain and France will both come to the market on Thursday. Spain aims to raise E5-6bln through nominal sales and will launch the new 3-year Bono, the 0% May-24 and re-open the 0% Jan-26 Bono and the 1.00% Oct-50 Obli. It will also aim to sell E250-750mln of the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei. France will conclude issuance for the week with E9.5-11.0bln of L/T OATs. On offer are the 0% Nov-30 OAT, the 0.50% May-40 OAT and the 0.75% May-52 OAT.
• RECAP: Three countries held syndicated sales on Tuesday: Italy sold E10bln of a new long 15-year 0.95% Mar-37 BTP. Ireland launched a new long 10-year benchmark for E5.5bln, 0% Oct-31. Slovenia held a dual tranche syndication, launching a new 10-year 0% Feb-31 benchmark for E1.75bln and re-opening the 30-year 0.4875% Oct-50 for E250mln. Germany held the first EGB auction of 2021, with E4.84bln of the 0% Dec-22 Schatz allotted.
• CASH FLOWS: E19.1bln of redemptions (of which E19.0bln are a maturing Bund) and E5.7bln of coupons (again almost exclusively from Germany) will see net flows excluding syndications for the week of E19.4bln. The prior week saw no issuance with small coupon and redemption payments totaling E0.8bln.

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