EGB Supply For W/C Jul 5, 2021

We estimate announced issuance this week to be just E10.4bln, down from E43.4bln last week. However, a number of countries could hold syndications, with a decent chance of a new French 30-year OAT either next week or the week after.

• The EFSF is due to kick off issuance this week via syndication (likely today). An RFP has been issued but no further details are available yet. We do note, however, that the EFSF is only looking to issue E2.0bln in Q3, and expect the syndication to therefore complete the EFSF's funding needs for the quarter.
• Austria will come to the market tomorrow to sell E1.495bln of 5/10-year RAGBs: the 0.75% Oct-26 RAGB and the 0% Feb-31 RAGB.
• Germany will look to sell linkers on tomorrow with E400mln of the 0.10% Apr-33 ILB and E200mln of the 0.10% Apr-46 ILB on offer.
• Germany will return to the market Wednesday to sell E5bln of the new Oct-26 Bobl.
• Ireland will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday with details of the transaction due this morning.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There are E24.0bln of redemptions due this week, E19.0bln of a German Bund (originally 10-year) and E5.0bln of an EFSF bond (which was rolled earlier this year). Coupon payments total E7.6bln, of which E6.9bln are German. With estimated nominal gross issuance of E10.4bln, we look for net nominal flows of -E21.3bln for the week, almost balancing last week's net issuance of E29.6bln. Although, with a couple of large syndications, we could see net nominal flows a lot closer to flat.

For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the full document here.