EGB Supply: W/C 19 February, 2024 (2/2)

• On Friday, Italy will come to the market to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. We expect to see the launch of the new BTP Short Term maturing 28 January 2026 but don’t have a strong conviction on which BTPeis will be on offer. However, if we don’t see the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994) reopened, we would look for a new long 10-year BTPei to be launched via syndication, potentially as early as the first quarter of the year. There is also a chance that a new 10-year BTPei could potentially be launched via auction. Details will be announced tomorrow afternoon.
• Note that subscriptions for the next retail-only Belgium State Bonds (Bons d’Etat) will open on Thursday 22 February. Belgium plans to launch a new 1-year issue (ISIN: BE3871294240) and a new 3-year issue (ISIN: BE3871295254). The subscription window is planned to be open until Friday 1 March but there is a possibility of an early close. The BDA has announced that there will be a combined limit of E6.0bln across the two issues.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees E4.6bln of redemptions: E4.0bln from a formerly 10-year EFSF bond and USD0.7bln from a Slovenian USD bond. Coupons for the week sum to E1.5bln including E0.9bln Austrian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E18.5bln, compared to negative E8.4bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix see the full PDF here.