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EGB Supply - W/C 24 June, 2024

EUROZONE ISSUANCE
The EU, Italy and Germany look to hold auctions in the week ahead. We pencil in an estimated gross issuance for the week at E22.9bln, down from E28.7bln last week.
  • The EU will kick off issuance today by selling up to E2.5bln of the 2.75% Oct-26 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D82) and up to E2.5bln of the 3.00% Dec-34 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4ES4).
  • Italy tomorrow will look to hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302) alongside E0.5-1.5bln of the 0.40% May-30 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005387052) and E0.75-1.25bln of the 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812).
  • Germany tomorrow, will issue E4.5bln of the 2.90% Jun-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22056).
  • Italy will return to the market on Thursday, to hold a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction. Details will be announced on Monday. We expect to see a reopening of the 5-year 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584849) and potentially see a new 10-year BTP launched (if not a reopening of the 3.85% Jul-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584856)).
  • NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees redemptions of E20.4bln (most notably E14.7bln of a formerly 10-year Belgian OLO, E4.5bln of a formerly 10-year EFSF bond and E0.85bln of the formerly 7-year Cypriot bond). Coupon payments for the week are E5.9bln, of which E4.6bln are Belgian and E1.0bln are French. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E3.4bln, versus positive E21.6bln last week.

For a recap of this week's issuance and more details on the next two weeks see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.

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