EGB Supply - W/C 26 June, 2023

The EU, the Netherlands and Italy all look to issue in the upcoming week. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E18.8bln.

• The EU will conclude its H1 issuance with an auction of 2/11-year EU-bonds on Monday. Up to E2.5bln of the 0.80% Jul-25 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DJ5) and up to E2.0bln of the 3.25% Jul-34 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D41) will be on offer.
• On Tuesday, the Netherlands will then look to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the 30-year 2.00% Jan-54 DSL (ISIN: NL00150012X2).
• Also Tuesday, Italy will hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. E2.0-2.5bln of the 3.40% Mar-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005534281) will be on offer (possibly for the last time ahead of a new BTP-ST in July) alongside E1.25-1.75bln of the 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) which was launched in April.
• On Friday, Italy will look to conclude H1 issuance with a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction. We look for a reopening of the 5-year 3.80% Aug-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005548315) alongside the 10-year 4.35% Nov-33 BTP (ISIN: IT0005544082). We have less conviction surrounding the CCTeu. The on-the-run 0.80% Oct-28 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005534984) has been on offer at the previous two auctions, so there is a chance that a different CCTeu is reopened at this auction.
• Germany will hold a press conference to discuss its Q3 issuance plans at 10:00BST / 11:00CET on Tuesday 27 June while the EU will hold an investor call on Wednesday 28 June to present its H2 issuance plans (although note that it has previously published these plans ahead of the call.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: Next week sees redemptions of E0.2bln and coupons of E1.0bln, leaving estimated net flows of positive E17.6bln in the week.