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EGB Supply - W/C 3 June, 2024

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

Austria, Germany, Spain and France all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E27.5bln, down from E40.4bln last week. We think that it is unlikely that we see any syndications this week, given the ECB meeting.

  • Austria will look to kick off issuance for the week tomorrow. On offer will be a shared E2.013bln of the 3.45% Oct-30 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A38239) and the 2.90% Feb-34 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A39UW5)
  • Germany will also come to the market tomorrow to sell E4.5bln of the 2.90% Jun-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22056).
  • Germany will return on Wednesday to issue E3bln of the 7-year 2.40% Nov-30 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27006).
  • Spain will look to hold a Bono/Obli/ObliEi auction on Thursday. The size of the auction will be confirmed this afternoon with the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% May-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M77), the 7-year 0.10% Apr-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012H41) as well as the first auction of the 30-year 4.00% Oct-54 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012M93) following its February syndicated launch. Also on offer will be the 15-year 2.05% Nov-39 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012M69). As we expected, the 10-year area was avoided after the recent syndication.
  • France will conclude the week by issuing E10.5-12.0bln of LT OATs, with details to be confirmed Friday. A new 10-year 3.00% Nov-34 OAT (ISIN: FR001400QMF9) will be on offer alongside the expected on-the-run 15-year 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62) and on-the-run 30-year 3.25% May-55 OAT (ISIN: FR001400OHF4).
NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees a single redemption of E1.0bln from a formerly 3-year LithGB. Coupon payments for the week are E2.5bln, of which E2.4bln are Italian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E24.1bln, versus negative E46.3bln last week.
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