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EGB Supply - W/C 8 January, 2024 (3/3)

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

Other syndications expected in the week:

  • Belgium: 10-year expected with issue sizes generally ranging from E5-7bln. MNI expects the top half of this range (or potentially even a little larger).
  • Ireland: H1-Jan: 10-year IGB most likely. There was no 10-year benchmark launched in 2023 and we see a similarly low funding target for 2024, but there is a gap in the maturity schedule in 2034 (which wasn’t the case in 2023 regarding 2033 and also won’t be the case in 2025 regarding 2035). MNI would expect a transaction size of E3.0-3.5bln, which would see Ireland raising almost half of its 2024 funding target of E6-10bln in this transaction.
  • Italy: Expect new 15-year and new 30-year (one early January, one in February but not strong conviction which will come first). 15-year transaction size expected around E5bln, 30-year BTP transaction size expected E5-7bln.
  • Spain: Expect new 10-year Oct-34 Obli to launch in January (either W/C 8 Jan or W/C 22 Jan) for E10-13bln.

    • NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees only E0.5bln of redemptions (an Austrian EMTN) with no coupon payments due. This leaves net flows for the week at an estimated positive E53.6bln, up from E10.9bln this week.

    For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix including summaries of funding plans for 2024 see the full PDF here.

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