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EGBS: Bund Futures Pierce Oct 24 High On Crude Oil Pullback

EGBS
BulletEurozoneFixed Income BulletsMarkets

Bund futures pierced the Oct 24 high at 133.54 earlier, and are in the process of consolidating above the the 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg at 133.39. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish theme.  

  • The pullback in crude oil prices following reports of an Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire deal have driven this afternoon’s rally, with the 5y5y EUR inflation swap 2bps lower today at 2.0060%,
  • The German curve has twist flattened, with 2-year yields 2bps higher and 30-year yields over 5bps lower. See our earlier STIR bullet for more colour on today’s short-end pressure.
  • 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are within 1bp of Friday’s levels, though OAT’s still underperform a little on renewed political/fiscal concerns.
  • Tomorrow, the EC are set to provide feedback on members’ 2025 budgetary plans. There are also a host of ECB speakers due.
  • However, immediate focus turns to ECB Chief Economist Lane’s speech at 1630GMT/1730CET. 
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Bund futures pierced the Oct 24 high at 133.54 earlier, and are in the process of consolidating above the the 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg at 133.39. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish theme.  

  • The pullback in crude oil prices following reports of an Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire deal have driven this afternoon’s rally, with the 5y5y EUR inflation swap 2bps lower today at 2.0060%,
  • The German curve has twist flattened, with 2-year yields 2bps higher and 30-year yields over 5bps lower. See our earlier STIR bullet for more colour on today’s short-end pressure.
  • 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are within 1bp of Friday’s levels, though OAT’s still underperform a little on renewed political/fiscal concerns.
  • Tomorrow, the EC are set to provide feedback on members’ 2025 budgetary plans. There are also a host of ECB speakers due.
  • However, immediate focus turns to ECB Chief Economist Lane’s speech at 1630GMT/1730CET.