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EGBS: Bunds Remain Weaker Alongside Core FI, German IP Headlines Tomorrow

EGBS
EurozoneBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Major EGB futures have tracked moves in broader core FI through today, with Bund futures -45 ticks at 133.47. Tomorrow’s regional calendar is relatively light, headlined by German August IP and the start of this week’s EGB supply. 

  • Although this morning’s German factory orders print was weaker than expected, we note that the 3.2% M/M rise in real manufacturing turnover could signal upside risks to tomorrow’s August industrial production data (current consensus is 0.8% M/M).
  • Supply from the EU (3/15-year dual tranche syndication), the Netherlands (10-year DSL), Austria (10/30-year RAGBs) and Germany (Green Bund) is also due.
  • ECB implied rates for June 2025 have held onto this morning’s hawkish adjustment, with 134bps of cuts priced.
  • ECB’s Kazaks told the MNI Policy Team that he supported an October rate cut, while Holzmann maintained a familiarly hawkish tone.
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Major EGB futures have tracked moves in broader core FI through today, with Bund futures -45 ticks at 133.47. Tomorrow’s regional calendar is relatively light, headlined by German August IP and the start of this week’s EGB supply. 

  • Although this morning’s German factory orders print was weaker than expected, we note that the 3.2% M/M rise in real manufacturing turnover could signal upside risks to tomorrow’s August industrial production data (current consensus is 0.8% M/M).
  • Supply from the EU (3/15-year dual tranche syndication), the Netherlands (10-year DSL), Austria (10/30-year RAGBs) and Germany (Green Bund) is also due.
  • ECB implied rates for June 2025 have held onto this morning’s hawkish adjustment, with 134bps of cuts priced.
  • ECB’s Kazaks told the MNI Policy Team that he supported an October rate cut, while Holzmann maintained a familiarly hawkish tone.