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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Lagarde Sets The Path To September

BONDS

European yields rose Monday, with Gilts outperforming Bunds (reversing morning underperformance vs Germany in the afternoon as equity gains accelerated).

  • ECB President Lagarde set a hawkish tone for the session with her unusually explicit forward guidance in a morning blog post. She confirmed that a July hike was on the cards, with rates exiting negative territory by end-Q3.
  • A BBG sources piece in the afternoon said some officials were dismayed by the effective ruling out of a 50bp hike option for now; little market reaction.
  • BTP spreads tightened, having initially reacted negatively to Lagarde's comments.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany:

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 7.9bps at 0.421%, 5-Yr is up 8.3bps at 0.738%, 10-Yr is up 7.3bps at 1.017%, and 30-Yr is up 8.2bps at 1.198%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 6.5bps at 1.572%, 5-Yr is up 6.6bps at 1.669%, 10-Yr is up 7.7bps at 1.97%, and 30-Yr is up 5.5bps at 2.185%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 4bps at 201.7bps / Greek down 5.4bps at 272.4bps
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