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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: 50bp On ECB's Agenda For July?

BONDS

ECB's Knot sparked a bearish repricing at the front of European curves Tuesday with his comment that he would be open to a 50bp hike at the bank's July meeting.

  • Although Knot's comments could be discounted on account of his pre-existing hawkish leanings, ECB rate hike pricing for 2022 hit a cycle high, with over 100bp in hikes priced for the year (though a 25bp raise in July remains the market's base case).
  • UK yields also rose sharply, both following the EGB move and strong March wage data. 2Y Gilts sold off 20+bp.
  • Periphery EGB spreads widened but not as much as might be expected given tighter ECB policy expectations.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany:

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 12bps at 0.3551%, 5-Yr is up 12.8bps at 0.734%, 10-Yr is up 10.9bps at 1.046%, and 30-Yr is up 7.2bps at 1.176%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 20.8bps at 1.445%, 5-Yr is up 20.2bps at 1.565%, 10-Yr is up 15.1bps at 1.881%, and 30-Yr is up 11.5bps at 2.092%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 1bps at 191.6bps / Spanish up 1bps at 107.2bps
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