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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: More Dovish ECB Talk Boosts Big Rally

BONDS

Monday's session saw a big rally across the space, with 10-Yr Bunds and BTPs dropping most since June 2020, and Gilts underperforming though also stronger.

  • An early rally unwinding some of last week's losses gained momentum in the afternoon on comments by ECB's Villeroy that the bank "can and must react" against "unwarranted" tightening of financial conditions. This follows last week's dovish comments by Lagarde, Schnabel, Lane.
  • Bunds briefly dipped on ECB data showing a slowdown in asset purchases (vs expectations that the ECB picked up the pace during last week's bond sell-off), but an ECB spokesperson was on the wires to explain this was due to large redemptions.
  • Markets largely ignored in-line/above consensus Italy and Spain Feb PMIs, and higher-than-expected German and Italian inflation.

Closing yields/10-Yr Spreads to Bunds:

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.4bps at -0.687%, 5-Yr is down 6.1bps at -0.629%, 10-Yr is down 7.4bps at -0.334%, and 30-Yr is down 5bps at 0.144%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.9bps at 0.099%, 5-Yr is down 4.7bps at 0.353%, 10-Yr is down 6.1bps at 0.759%, and 30-Yr is down 5.2bps at 1.334%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 2.9bps at 99.2bps /Spanish spread down 2.5bps at 65.8bps
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