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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Rally From Lows As Central Bank Hawkishness Abates

BONDS

The UK curve twist steepened while Germany's bull flattened Friday, with weakness early in the session reversing in the afternoon.

  • After weakening early on hawkish comments by ECB's Schnabel who said that markets may be underestimating inflationary pressures, EGBs rallied after shortly after noon GMT as Banque de France's Villeroy signalled slower hikes past March.
  • The rally accelerated in the afternoon as Fed's Barkin was seen eyeing 25bp hikes, calming recent market fears over a return to 50bp US hikes.
  • Stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data helped contribute to Gilt underperformance.
  • A fairly thin schedule awaits Monday, with volumes likely to be limited by a US holiday.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 2.877%, 5-Yr is down 2.9bps at 2.508%, 10-Yr is down 3.8bps at 2.44%, and 30-Yr is down 4.1bps at 2.395%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 3.794%, 5-Yr is up 2.3bps at 3.433%, 10-Yr is up 1.6bps at 3.515%, and 30-Yr is up 4bps at 3.936%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 0.5bps at 186bps / Spanish up 0.6bps at 96.9bps
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