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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Rate Hike Pricing Hits Cycle High Pre-ECB


The ongoing rise in European yields resumed Wednesday after a day's pause. The German curve bear steepened while the UK belly underperformed, with Thursday's ECB meeting coming into focus.

  • 2Y yields reached the highest in over a decade, with 5Y highest since 2013. 10Y hit a fresh post-2014 high.
  • Despite a slow session in terms of news and data, hawkish central bank speculation continued. End-2022 hike pricing hit a fresh cycle high (ECB 134bp of tightening priced, UK 155bp).
  • Pre-ECB peripheral EGB volatility continued; Greek 10Y spreads rose by over 9bp.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany:

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.2bps at 0.701%, 5-Yr is up 4.8bps at 1.077%, 10-Yr is up 6.1bps at 1.354%, and 30-Yr is up 6.6bps at 1.592%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.3bps at 1.78%, 5-Yr is up 3.7bps at 1.881%, 10-Yr is up 3.2bps at 2.246%, and 30-Yr is up 3.3bps at 2.458%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 1.9bps at 202.1bps / Greek up 9.6bps at 261.9bps

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