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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Short End Sees Relief, But BTP Spreads Widen

BONDS

The German curve bull steepened while the UK's twist steepened Friday.

  • The front end outperformed, helped by mixed/weak US data as well as some Fed speakers who pointed to a 75bp and not 100bp July hike.
  • BTP spreads widened amid continued political uncertainty - note publication of an MNI exclusive "Italy PM Draghi Expects To Quit Next Wednesday - Sources".
  • Attention turns swiftly to the ECB decision next week - a 25bp hike is fully priced, with a modest chance of a 50bp raise (about 15% now, vs around 40% Thurs morning).

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany:

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 5.7bps at 0.466%, 5-Yr is down 4.5bps at 0.829%, 10-Yr is down 4.9bps at 1.129%, and 30-Yr is down 2.7bps at 1.356%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 4.3bps at 1.919%, 5-Yr is down 3.4bps at 1.799%, 10-Yr is down 1.5bps at 2.086%, and 30-Yr is up 2.8bps at 2.579%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 6.8bps at 214bps / Spanish down 0.4bps at 115.4bps
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