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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Strong Start To Week

BONDS

Core European FI started the week on the front foot, with yields steadily dropping through the session and the German and UK curves bull flattening Monday.

  • Bunds outperformed, supported in part the latest fiscal developments, as Fin Min Lindner confirming Germany wouldn't take on new net debt this year despite the supplementary budget.
  • With the German cabinet agreeing to the 2023 supplementary budget today, attention turns to Chancellor Scholz addressing the Bundestag Tuesday morning on the fiscal situation.
  • Soft US housing data and softer oil prices helped the core FI bid; other than that, there were few Europe-specific drivers in the session.
  • It was a slightly less constructive story for periphery EGBs, after ECB President Lagarde mentioned that PEPP reinvestment would be reassessed in the "not-too-distant future".
  • We get some speakers overnight including ECB's De Cos and BOE's Ramsden, with Haskel and Lane up Tuesday. Eurozone inflation is the week's focus, with the November flash round starting Wednesday - our preview will be out Tuesday.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 7.3bps at 2.999%, 5-Yr is down 10.1bps at 2.515%, 10-Yr is down 9.5bps at 2.548%, and 30-Yr is down 6.7bps at 2.752%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 6.8bps at 4.643%, 5-Yr is down 7.6bps at 4.254%, 10-Yr is down 7.1bps at 4.212%, and 30-Yr is down 8.1bps at 4.665%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 1.9bps at 173.6bps/ Greek up 4.1bps at 123.2bps
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