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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: UK Short End Gains With Central Bank Moves Eyed

BONDS

German and UK yields were mostly lower Wednesday, though there was some weakness evident further down curves and in periphery EGBs ahead of multiple major central bank decisions.

  • The UK short-end outperformed following weaker-than-expected CPI data this morning pull down terminal BoE rate hike pricing (4.56%, back to last Friday's levels pre-wage data).
  • Periphery EGB spreads continue to widen from their knee-jerk post US-CPI narrowing, with one eye on Thursday's ECB decision that could include details on balance sheet runoff plans.
  • Immediate post-cash close attention is on the US Fed decision; market pricing for the BoE and ECB rate hikes Thursday is firmly on 50bp increases.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.3bps at 2.133%, 5-Yr is down 1.1bps at 1.933%, 10-Yr is up 1.5bps at 1.94%, and 30-Yr is up 9.2bps at 1.844%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 6.8bps at 3.451%, 5-Yr is down 4.7bps at 3.297%, 10-Yr is up 1.4bps at 3.315%, and 30-Yr is down 2bps at 3.696%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 5bps at 192.6bps / Spanish up 2.2bps at 103.2bps
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